Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Fantasy Report: Amp Energy 500

Residents of Calhoun and Talladega counties may notice an influx of people into the area this weekend as 200,000 fans descend upon the Talladega Superspeedway for the Amp Energy 500, the Mountain Dew 250 and the ARCA RE/MAX Series 250. The Chase is on with 3 top contenders eyeing the trophy and Talladega could be the determining factor in who stays in it or takes themselves out of the running. Onto this week's picks:

Brandon's picks:

Jimmie Johnson✔, Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhardt Jr.✔, David Ragan✔, Juan Pablo Montoya, Elliott Sadler, Travis Kvapil✔ and David Reutimann.

Erik's picks:

Jeff Gordon✔, Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr.✔, Jamie McMurray✔, Ryan Newman, Elliott Sadler, Travis Kvapil✔ and Scott Riggs.

Frontrunners: There's no doubt that since this is an impound race that there will be some lesser teams running toward the front of the pack to start this race but they probably won't stay there for long. Case in point: Joe Nemechek sat on the pole in the spring and finished a not-so-bad 25th, whereas Montoya started 26th and finished 2nd. However, this isn't an exact science since Kyle Busch started 5th and won earlier this year at 'Dega. It couldn't hurt to put in some drivers you think doesn't have a shot at winning but might qualify well if you've already decided on who you're putting in this weekend ... for me that's Elliott Sadler (can't ever tell with him though.)

Eye on the prize: There's little question about Talladega's importance in terms of Chase points and it could be an excellent opportunity to really rake in some Fantasy points as well. You can be sure that the top guys in the point standings will be factors this weekend but I think that when the checkered flag is dropped the #48 of Johnson will be out front. Call it a hunch from the perspective of his 13th place finish in the spring, but he's had a win here and 4 top-5 finishes. After his victory last weekend in Kansas and the revival of his teams performance he's got my pick. Other notables to watch out for would be J. Gordon, Carl Edwards and Tony Stewart.

Trouble in turn 4: Kyle Busch ... oh, how unpredictable you have become. I would like to say that he's a lock this weekend given the fact that he dominated the season but with dismal performances in the Chase and his innate ability to get into trouble at 'Dega he might not be a good choice. Despite the fact that I haven't been able to use Kyle for quite some time and his winning the last 2 restrictor plate races this year, I'm not sure he'll do that well on Sunday. Remember: he doesn't have anything to lose and for "crazy" drivers like Kyle that could end well for him or very badly. Although not his fault, this comes to mind: The Big One from the 2007 UAW-Ford 500.

They can't all win: When playing Fantasy one must not always try to knock it out of the park week-in, week-out. So, when picking your drivers this week, especially for B and C, try to pick someone that is a solid finisher and has the experience to stay out of big wrecks. Earnhardt Jr. is the guy I've been holding for this very race. Not only is he the fan favorite but he could also turn a few heads with a great finish, if not a win, this weekend if he can stay out of trouble. Remember in 2006, Junior almost won before getting spun out on the last lap. Another driver that could have a decent week is Montoya. He's coming off a pole at Kansas that was taken away by technicality and a near win the the spring at Talladega.

Good luck and enjoy the race!

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